by N952JL (Posted Tue, 25 Jun 2013 08:25:52 GMT)
You are assuming "they can probably never grow large enough". I don't see why not - after all their market cap is much less than Toyota's. Why could they not grow to be a Toyota.
BTW, I don't think the markets are rational at all - we see the proof of that all the time.
I do not jump into these discussions too often, but I do have a comment about growing larger. The Tesla's CA plant was purchased for pennies on the dollar. We all know Toyota purchased a stake in Tesla, and just how much that action play a part in the plant's final price I have no idea. Now if Tesla is to grow larger, it will have to purchased/build more plants as that one small plant isn't going to be able to produce the volume of vehicles needed for Tesla even to become as large as the smallest ICE manuafactor.
As they are growning, a good portion of their business could very well be licensing their technology. That is one way to insure compatability. I think everyone agrees in order for the BEV to replace the ICE the BEV needs the ability to travel between 500 and 1000 miles in one driving day. Now I know, who needs to do 1000 miles in a single driving day. I use to do it, way back when but now there isn't really a need. But 500 to 600 miles in one driving day is rather common. On the interstates even 700 miles in 12 hrs is not uncommon. Now I know the Leaf is not designed for it. But the Leaf will never be a primary vehicale because of this limitation. If you want to replace the ICE, the replacements will have to be able to perform what they do. Even with the superchargers being able to put in 150 miles in 20 mins I get about 8.5 hrs to do 550 miles. Then stop for a 1.5 hr dinner followed by another 3 hrs of driving would get you about 750 miles in 13 hrs. OK that is close enough and with battery swapping, you could get 750 miles in 10 hrs with only battery swapping time. About as good as any ICE out there today.
But for all cars to switch over, all cars would have to share the same charging/swapping intrasturcure. Just like we do now for gas. This becomes even more important if you look at the three ways to increase the range of a BEV. 1. Recharging the batter, 2. Swapping the spent battery for a full charged one, and 3. Some sort of range extending generator that can be towed behind the vehicle for long trips. With batteries being so expensive people are currently working on Range Extender trailers but to increase the market (and lower the cost per unit) we need to be standarized so that the trailer could work for any BEV with the same hookups.
In the end I still Believe Tesla will produce the cars and licensing the technology.
evnow wrote:
mitch672 wrote:
Without licensing their technology, they can probably never grow large enough to justify their current valuation, never mind the multiples to come. If you don't believe they are going to grow via licensing, your holding onto an overvalued stock, that's the connection. I do believe that's how they intend to become a giant /leader of the blossoming EV industry. Tesla is valued on its future earnings, not what's happening at the moment.
You are assuming "they can probably never grow large enough". I don't see why not - after all their market cap is much less than Toyota's. Why could they not grow to be a Toyota.
BTW, I don't think the markets are rational at all - we see the proof of that all the time.
I do not jump into these discussions too often, but I do have a comment about growing larger. The Tesla's CA plant was purchased for pennies on the dollar. We all know Toyota purchased a stake in Tesla, and just how much that action play a part in the plant's final price I have no idea. Now if Tesla is to grow larger, it will have to purchased/build more plants as that one small plant isn't going to be able to produce the volume of vehicles needed for Tesla even to become as large as the smallest ICE manuafactor.
As they are growning, a good portion of their business could very well be licensing their technology. That is one way to insure compatability. I think everyone agrees in order for the BEV to replace the ICE the BEV needs the ability to travel between 500 and 1000 miles in one driving day. Now I know, who needs to do 1000 miles in a single driving day. I use to do it, way back when but now there isn't really a need. But 500 to 600 miles in one driving day is rather common. On the interstates even 700 miles in 12 hrs is not uncommon. Now I know the Leaf is not designed for it. But the Leaf will never be a primary vehicale because of this limitation. If you want to replace the ICE, the replacements will have to be able to perform what they do. Even with the superchargers being able to put in 150 miles in 20 mins I get about 8.5 hrs to do 550 miles. Then stop for a 1.5 hr dinner followed by another 3 hrs of driving would get you about 750 miles in 13 hrs. OK that is close enough and with battery swapping, you could get 750 miles in 10 hrs with only battery swapping time. About as good as any ICE out there today.
But for all cars to switch over, all cars would have to share the same charging/swapping intrasturcure. Just like we do now for gas. This becomes even more important if you look at the three ways to increase the range of a BEV. 1. Recharging the batter, 2. Swapping the spent battery for a full charged one, and 3. Some sort of range extending generator that can be towed behind the vehicle for long trips. With batteries being so expensive people are currently working on Range Extender trailers but to increase the market (and lower the cost per unit) we need to be standarized so that the trailer could work for any BEV with the same hookups.
In the end I still Believe Tesla will produce the cars and licensing the technology.