by DaveinOlyWA (Posted Sat, 08 Jun 2013 22:40:11 GMT)
I think it depends on battery technology. When a major improvement appears for batteries that lowers price and increases energy density, you'll see a bigger jump in sales. When you can make a car priced similar to the Leaf with a 200+ mile range, you'll see electric sales skyrocket to eventually take over ICE. Thats when early movers, such as Nissan and Tesla have the potential to clean up in the auto business.
Tesla has created an awesome brand.
I worry the Nissan is selling itself short with the battery life issues and its weak battery performance warranty. I hope EVs don't get a bad reputation like GM gave diesels.
my predictions are based on expected incremental battery management/chemistry improvements. I think the current EV technology is more than good enough to attract an audience. right now, its still in the "alien" technology realm. people are interested because its clear EVs are not going away (unless you got a Coda...) but they are still hesitant. this latest burst of sales will allow a greater penetration into the market that is beyond the early adopter level.
the only real failing I see here is total lack of public support in infrastructure, policy and legislation. EV'ers are still left out in the ocean holding onto a life preserver that has no rope attached. it will keep us from drowning but wont save us. we have to do that ourselves.
dm33 wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
I think the current rate of EV sales will double each of the next 3 years before "leveling" out to a healthy double digit growth rate for at least a few decades. It is easy to see that the LEAF has been Nissan's #1 seller in the Pacific Northwest this Spring and I see no evidence that that trend will change. its easy to know how long a new LEAFer has been driving electric by simply doing a bit of math with the expiration date of the temporary sticker in the back window
I think it depends on battery technology. When a major improvement appears for batteries that lowers price and increases energy density, you'll see a bigger jump in sales. When you can make a car priced similar to the Leaf with a 200+ mile range, you'll see electric sales skyrocket to eventually take over ICE. Thats when early movers, such as Nissan and Tesla have the potential to clean up in the auto business.
Tesla has created an awesome brand.
I worry the Nissan is selling itself short with the battery life issues and its weak battery performance warranty. I hope EVs don't get a bad reputation like GM gave diesels.
my predictions are based on expected incremental battery management/chemistry improvements. I think the current EV technology is more than good enough to attract an audience. right now, its still in the "alien" technology realm. people are interested because its clear EVs are not going away (unless you got a Coda...) but they are still hesitant. this latest burst of sales will allow a greater penetration into the market that is beyond the early adopter level.
the only real failing I see here is total lack of public support in infrastructure, policy and legislation. EV'ers are still left out in the ocean holding onto a life preserver that has no rope attached. it will keep us from drowning but wont save us. we have to do that ourselves.